ILUC Assessment

The GLOBIOM model will be used to model ILUC GHG values of a selection of conventional and advanced biofuel feedstocks.

For the purpose of modelling, a baseline will be set up on the period 2010-20301 to take into account the evolution of main macro-economic indicators and policies. This baseline will serve as a reference for the study.

The baseline will be compared with several policy scenarios. First, some feedstock-specific scenarios will be modelled; looking at the effect of increasing the incorporation level of one biofuel feedstock only. In addition, some scenarios will look at different possible developments of the EU biofuel policy and test alternative assumptions.

Last, sensitivity analyses will be performed to explore uncertainty ranges around the results of these scenarios.

1 Baseline actually covers the period 2000-2030 but is calibrated to present the period 2010-2030. Note that the quantity of EU biofuel consumption in the baseline will be identical as in the IFPRI 2011 study for the purpose of comparing results with results from that study.